Tag Archive for Middle East

Engaging the Dragon Through Peaceful Deterrence: Japan’s Need to Recalibrate Its Strategy of Accommodation with China

“Engaging the Dragon Through Peaceful Deterrence: Japan’s Need to Recalibrate Its Strategy of Accommodation with China” by Kapok Tree Diplomacy

© Kapok Tree Diplomacy. Oct 2012. All rights reserved. Jeff Dwiggins. 

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Theoretical Framework

The grand strategies and values of Japan and China will be evaluated from a “Balance of Threat” and “Defensive Realism” theoretical framework.  This essay posits that given China’s rise and Japan’s moment of opportunity to counter, it is important to gauge the feasibility of a values-based concert of democracies within this theoretical framework. Stephen Walt argues that states tend to balance or bandwagon with a rising power depending on their assessment of the perceived threat.[1] Japan’s past, present and future behavior towards China is thus assessed within the parameters of defensive realism which point to Japanese formation of strategic alliances to deal with the anarchy and security dilemma that characterize the international system and create uncertainty of intentions and inadvertent mistrust and conflict.[2] Read more

Can Samuel P. Huntington’s ‘Clash of Civilizations’ model explain trends in foreign affairs after the 9-11 attack?

(C) Kapok Tree Diplomacy. Feb 2011. All rights reserved. Jeff Dwiggins.

The conduct of international relations post 9-11 has certainly been dramatically shaped by the US. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, in the former as a pre-emptive attack to remove WMD and the Ba’athist regime of Saddam Hussein, and in the latter to hunt down al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists and eliminate the training bases that harbored these non-state actors. In both cases, massive reconstruction projects have been undertaken to prevent Iraq and Afghanistan from becoming failed states and help them adopt political and economic reforms of a Western orientation.

But these U.S. interventions are not the only factor explaining the conduct of IR after 9-11. Paul Diehl notes that the demand for peace operations and subsequent escalation in third party interventions rose dramatically following the Cold War due to “superpower retrenchment in providing aid to other states,” an explosion of failed states and civil wars that spawned out of the power vacuum, an increased advocacy for democracy and free markets, greater international concern for human rights, and globalization (52-55). Read more

Zero Problems – Enhancing Security and Preventing Conflict in Turkey’s Evolving Partnerships with the European Union, United States, Middle East, Russia and Eurasia

“Zero Problems – Enhancing Security and Preventing Conflict in Turkey’s Evolving Partnerships with the European Union, United States, Middle East, Russia and Eurasia” by Kapok Tree Diplomacy

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Zero Problems – Turkey – FREE PREVIEW

Zero Problems – Enhancing Security and Preventing Conflict in Turkey’s Evolving Partnerships with the European Union, United States, Middle East, Russia and Eurasia

{5,673 Words. 20 Pages. 61 References} 

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (TOC)

I.     Section One – Europe and the Balkans

A.    European Union (EU) Accession

B.     Cooperation with NATO

C.     Cyprus and Greece Conflict

II.     Section Two – The Middle East            

A.    Israel

B.     Iran

C.     Syria

D.    Iraq

E.     Foreign Policy Perspective

III.   Section Three – Eurasia and the Caucasus

A.    Russia

B.     Armenia and Azerbaijan

IV.    Turkish Cooperation with the United States

V.      Turkey’s Domestic Issues

A.    The Kurdish Problem

B.     Political Trends, Islam and Social Transformation

C.     Comparisons with China

VI.    Conclusions: Conflict Prevention Through Strategic Counterbalancing

The views and opinions expressed in this paper are completely my own and do not represent the views or opinions of the Department of Defense (DoD), the Department of the Navy (DON) or any of the Armed Forces.

Section One – Europe and the Balkans (*not the complete section*)

European Union (EU) Accession. Ahmet Davutoğlu, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, says that EU Accession is on an “irreversible course” that will produce enhanced peace, stability, indivisibility of security, economic interdependence, cultural harmony and convergent interests in a region that includes the Balkans, the Caucasus, Europe and the Middle East (Davutoğlu:EU 12-17). The interests of the EU and Turkey do not, however, always converge harmoniously, and accession progress has slowed considerably since Brussels opened membership talks in 2005 with major regional security implications (Alessandri 28-29). Read more

Applying Domestic-Level Variables in Context to Relative Gains, Reciprocity and Anarchic Concepts to Examine Institutional Cooperation in the Middle East

In my initial studies of international relations and world politics through the mainstream theoretic lenses, the idea that “liberal” institutions operating within the anarchic structure of the international system can facilitate cooperation and reduce the likelihood of conflict has deeply intrigued me.  The increasing societal interconnectedness brought about by globalization personalizes the hope that such institutions may offer potential to make the world a safer place. While neorealism and neoliberalism disagree to some extent on the causes and likelihood of cooperation, combining essential components of these theories may prove invaluable to understanding the viability of institutional cooperation. However, neither view seems to fully account for the impact of domestic variables on international outcomes.

Joseph Grieco’s concept of “relative gains” and Robert Keohane’s “principle of reciprocity” in particular have significantly furthered our understanding of the causes and conditions for durable cooperation among states.  Might these tools be inherently flexible enough to incorporate domestic variables, thus loosening anarchic assumptions and opening the door for enhanced cooperation through institutions? Moreover, can the inclusion of domestic variables in context to these tools explain subpar cooperation in the Middle East?

The essay’s first section will offer a brief explanation of the Middle Eastern context in which these theoretical tools will be examined. This politically and religiously fragmented  region is marked by huge disparities between wealth and poverty, Sunnis and Shias, and common nationality and sectarian strife. It all makes the Middle East (ME) an outstanding area to examine the impact of domestic-level variables (DLVs).  In the second section I will lay out a summary of the reciprocity and relative gains concepts and make a general assessment of their ability to explain ME conflicts and lack of regional, institutional cooperation.

In the third section, I will apply DLVs as part of reciprocity and relative gains concepts to analyze the unique intergovernmental organization of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC) within the double security dilemma of competing state and domestic interests. In the fourth section I’ll review the anarchic environment and role of process as specific variables and causal determinants of state interests and outcomes within a structural view of the state that incorporates a simultaneous, dual security analysis,  and shift the focus from  reciprocity and relative gains to the theoretical perspectives of neorealism and neoliberalism from which they’re derived.

In the essay’s fifth and final section, I will present some ideas on moving forward towards greater stability and equitable prosperity in the ME through the promotion of a few specific ideas to include a greater role for capitalism, education, job creation and religious tolerance. Additionally, the application of “soft power” and “contextual intelligence” will be reviewed as potential strategies that utilize DLVs to shape interests and preferences, thereby influencing outcomes. {20 pages double-spaced + 18 references}